James Wagner |

24/07/2010
A Defense of Hume on Miracles is a short book divided into three parts:
1. a clear interpretation of Hume's famous argument against miracles;
2. a look at two supposed refutations, that is Johnson's "Hume, Holism and Miracles" and Earman's "Hume's Abject Failure";
3. a look at how Hume's stance on miracles fits into his philosophy as a whole.
Hume's argument basically consists of two methods of measuring the reliability of testimony: the "direct method", ie. showing the witness is reliable, unbiased, noncontradictory, etc. The more important second method is the "reverse method" in which the probability of the event that is being testified is assessed and then applied to judge the reliability of the testimony.
That is the first part of Hume's essay. The second part applies the reverse test to testimonies of religious miracles and argues that these have continuously failed, and as such has created an enormous barrier for future testimony of religious miracles.
Fogelin argues strongly against two common misinterpretations of Hume, namely that he is using an a-priori argument against miracles, and that Hume's argument is circular because it assumes "uniform experience" to discredit miracles (an argument used Hume nowhere says reports of miracles are false because we know they never happened. Fogelin explains with a clear example:
"Hume begins with a claim about testimony. On one side we have wide and unproblematic testimony to the effect that when people step into water they do not remain on its surface. On the other side we have isolated reports of people walking across the surface of water. Given testimony of the first kind, how should we evaluate the testimony of the second sort? The testimony of the first sort does not show that the testimony of the second sort is false; it does, however, create a strong presumption - unless countered, a decisively strong presumption - in favor of its falsehood. That is Hume's argument, and there is nothing circular or question-begging about it."
Fogelin shows in part 2 that Johnson commits both misinterpretations, that is, he both says that Hume's argument is circular and that Hume's argument is a-priori. Earman's approach is more subtle, but still flawed. Based on a couple of strong statements of Hume against miracles, Earman thinks Hume thought the probability of miracles was roughly zero. But, as noted earlier, this is incorrect because Hume provided an example of when a miracle could be established by testimony; moreover, it contradicts his epistemic fallibility, as well as a statement elsewhere that "the course of nature may change". So Earman's treatment too is based upon a misreading.
The third part is good too. Overall, Fogelin's book is written in clear style, offers excellent insights and provides a thorough defense against some more vocal critics of Hume. This all more than compensates for the short length of the book. Highly recommended for people interested in Hume's argument against miracles, or interested in miracles in general.